Asia, Africa the emerging forces in Athletics as USA win London 2017 Worlds

Usain Bolt has bowed out (temporarily?), an absence that was felt even as he left his last, unlucky spike marks on the London track. But Athletics have to move on without him. Change is the horizon, so we have taken an in-depth look at the national and continental trends that are shaping the future of this wonderful if beleaguered sport.

 

 

The top-10 ranking at major international Athletics tournaments has seen pretty much the same familiar faces in recent years. In the five editions of the Olympics and World Championships held since the London 2012 Games, the USA, Kenya and Jamaica have always been among the top five nations, and Great Britain have done so since the 2015 Athletics World Championships.

Unsurprisingly, the USA have won all of these five editions pretty comfortably. Equally unsurprisingly, Russia have ceased to be a factor, plummeting from second place at the London 2012 Olympics to … nothing in Rio 2016 and at the London 2017 World Championships, where the somewhat sad ANA (Authorised Neutral Athlete) tag made its first appearance.

The two other key trends are the rise and consolidation of Africa as a continental force in Athletics - though it may have peaked for the time being - and the gradual emergence of Asia as the upstart newcomer on the planetary Athletics scene, as shown by the table below.

 

 

 

The evolution hasn’t been wholly linear, but Europe and the Americas have ceded a fair amount of ground – or share of GSN points – to the two emerging continents. At London 2012, Europe plus the Americas won a 70.8% share of the points, and back in London again, in 2017, their combined points total was down to 67.9%.

In the same period, Africa’s share has risen consistently above 21%, peaking at 22.9% at the 2015 World Championships, while Asia, after a nadir of 4.6% at the 2013 World Championships, losing 1.5% over London 2012, has now reached a share of 8.6% and doesn’t seem to be ready to stop.

 

At the continental level, which nations have been the winners and losers in this gradually shifting landscape?

 

Kenya and Ethiopia are there to stay, both always in the top 6 of the Athletics ranking, but the emerging powerhouse is Wayde van Niekerk’s South Africa: from 23^rd in the table at the 2013 World Championships, to a remarkable 9^th at London 2017 (you can see the full London 2017 table below). As a continent, Africa’s impact in Athletics can be measured by the comparison between their points share at London 2017 (21.7%) and their current points share in the overall Global Cup (13.6%).

 

After Beijing 2008, China dipped, their points share falling to 2.1% at the 2013 World Championships, but it is again growing by leaps and bounds and they finished 7^th with 4.1% at London 2017. If China are the obvious locomotive of Asia’s progress, Japan are staking a claim too, rising from 29^th in London 2012 to 12^th in London 2017, and there are new countries jumping on the bandwagon: Bahrain and Qatar made the top 30 at London 2017, where also Kazakhstan, Syria and Tajikistan have scored points.

 

 

The former are worth a mention only to note Jamaica’s ‘negative’ performance at London 2017: they finished 4^th, but with only about half the points share they had at Rio 2016, a paltry 4.9%. It was especially disappointing if compared with the 10.5% the amazing Jamaicans earned themselves at the 2015 Athletics World Championships.

The story is reversed in Latin America, a sub-continent which is quietly beginning to win some interesting results in Athletics, as the likes of Colombia and Brazil have shown at London 2017, where the Latin American share of points was 3.9%, well up from the 1.4% recorded at the 2013 Athletics World Championships.